How to Test Ideas Before Launch

I believe that many individuals, especially developers, have found themselves in a situation where a brilliant idea strikes them, and their initial instinct is to swiftly develop an application to launch their startup, envisioning it as a potential unicorn or even a rhinoceros.

However, the immediate subsequent thought is often to refrain from sharing this brilliant idea with anyone, fearing that it might be stolen, and someone else might seize the opportunity to launch this billion-dollar project before they do.

Both of these thoughts are fundamentally flawed, and the approach should be quite the opposite: one should begin by sharing the idea with everyone, and it is advisable to slightly postpone the actual development phase.

Throughout my extensive IT career, I have encountered numerous "million-dollar ideas" and have gone through all the stages of "maturing" in terms of how ideas should be tested and implemented.

I have made every conceivable mistake, from immersing myself in development for over a year without testing the demand, to attempting to solve problems that do not actually exist or are purely imaginary.

Many mistakes can be avoided by simply following a straightforward approach to idea testing before proceeding with development. This approach will help save valuable time and money, as well as prevent making decisions "in the dark." Moreover, these same principles can be applied when testing significant new features before implementing them in already operational applications.

Google it!

First and foremost, it's essential to begin by checking if there are any existing similar applications available. This process is incredibly easy and doesn't require much time. Simply conduct a quick search on the internet, as it is quite possible that your idea is not entirely unique and has already been implemented. Unfortunately, this is a common occurrence, and in nine out of ten cases, you are likely to come across an application with a similar concept. However, there is no need to be discouraged. Ideas are infinite, and often, different individuals come up with the same good ideas around the same time. Ultimately, success is determined by those who implement their ideas more systematically, organized, and persistently. Merely releasing a good application is usually insufficient. The key lies in long-term and persistent work on its development, as well as growing the user base. Often, this process is mundane, routine, and remains behind the scenes in many success stories. However, it is the execution that generally determines overall success. Therefore, even if there are a few similar applications, do not despair or give up immediately. If your idea holds significant value, it is worth analyzing all the discovered applications. Consider their target audience, how they solve the problem, their UX/UI design, and the approximate size of their user base, among other factors. It is possible that these applications are new, relatively small, or do not adequately address the problem. However, it is crucial not to deceive yourself and attempt to compete with a market leader by convincing yourself that you can outperform them. If a project has already captured a significant portion of the market, it may not be easy to surpass it, even if your implementation seems theoretically superior. Doing so would require some form of "unfair" advantage.

If you were unable to find similar applications, it does not necessarily mean that none exist. It is possible that your search was not thorough enough. Try using different variations of search queries, and consider involving your spouse, partner, or friend in the search process. They may offer a different perspective on the problem and, consequently, suggest alternative search queries. When seeking their assistance, rather than asking them to find an application that does X, describe the problem and ask if they have come across any applications that address this problem. Perhaps they can provide some suggestions. If not, you can ask for their support in locating an application that tackles the problem.

Solve real problem

Let's continue.

In the scenario where we have discovered that there are no similar applications or only a few semi-active ones, and we believe we can easily outperform them, is this a positive outcome? Not always. It is possible that the absence of similar applications is due to the fact that people simply do not have that problem. Alternatively, the problem may exist but can be resolved through simple actions that do not require an application. Lastly, the problem may be limited to a very small number of individuals, meaning the market size is also very small. Creating an application for a market worth $100K would not be worthwhile, and even for a $1M market, it may not make sense. Why is market size important? It becomes more challenging to scale and compete in a small market. Even if the market is currently empty (a hypothetical blue ocean), if it is very small, imitators will quickly emerge after the launch of your unique project, gradually attracting users. Ultimately, it will become a race to see who goes bankrupt first, as the project will reach a point where it can no longer grow.

The limited market size is precisely another reason why competitors may not be visible at all.

How to Quickly Estimate Market Size

To make a rough estimation of the market size, you need to answer the question, "How many people are facing this problem?" In this case, we're not looking for TAM (Total Addressable Market) but SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market). There is no precise algorithm; it requires logic and creativity. You need to consider the following questions:

• Who is the target customer?
• How many potential customers are there?
• What is the average revenue potential per customer?
• What are the existing limitations?

Begin with a broad customer segment and gradually refine and narrow it down. Identify demographic and behavioral factors. When segmenting, consider the specific problem you are addressing.

To make a rough estimate of the number of people seeking a solution to the problem, you can utilize Google Trends.

For such a rough market estimation, it is more important to understand the logic behind arriving at the final number – having a rough understanding of the number of people facing the problem and their characteristics.

Here's an example of how you can roughly estimate the market size for electronic piano repair in Singapore:

Start with the fact that Singapore has a population of approximately 5 million people.

Next, assume: How many people own an electronic piano? Every 10th person? Every 100th person? Or maybe every 1,000th person?

Furthermore, how many electronic pianos can a repair technician fix in a day? 1? 5? 10?

How often do electronic pianos malfunction? Every year? Every 5 years? Every 10 years?

By answering these questions, you can obtain a rough estimate of the market.

Where can you find answers to these questions? You can search for the number of piano repair advertisements (i.e., the number of available technicians). You can search for the number of piano sales advertisements (i.e., the average monthly sales). You can try to find statistics on the sales of the most popular models. You can search for any relevant data, such as the statistic that one in every 10 people can play the piano, and then assume that every third person who can play the piano owns an electronic piano.

This method will not give you an exact market estimate (for that, you would need to conduct research), but it will provide an approximate order of magnitude.

If There is a Market, Could it Mean There is No Problem?

To determine if there is a problem and, more importantly, if people are willing to pay for a solution, research needs to be conducted. Conducting research is not difficult – you simply need to talk to potential customers and find out if they face such a problem and if they are willing to pay for its solution.

This process is known as Customer Development (CustDev). CustDev is a framework for understanding customer needs, validating assumptions, and iteratively building a product or solution that effectively addresses those needs. It involves actively engaging with potential customers or target audience members to gather insights, validate hypotheses, and inform the development process.

There are various tools available for conducting CustDev, such as quantitative surveys, qualitative interviews, focus groups, and more.

CustDev should be an ongoing process throughout the lifecycle of your project. You need to continuously survey your users to determine what is convenient or inconvenient for them, identify any pain points, assess the reception of new features, and so on.

CustDev does not require significant resources – at most, it requires your time to conduct interviews.

CustDev should involve all members of the team, as individuals from different departments can gather different insights.

One of the simplest ways to conduct CustDev is through interviews. If you don't have anything yet (no application, no user base), you can simply approach potential users on the street and engage in conversation. Introduce yourself and ask questions like, "Hi! I'm so-and-so, and I'm planning to..."

It's important to ask questions in a way that does not steer the person towards specific answers. The goal is to assess the current situation and determine if there is a present need, rather than in some hypothetical future or under certain conditions. Use filtering questions to assess if there is a genuine need.

Before conducting the survey, it's better to outline a set of hypotheses to focus on and test. All questions should be open-ended. For any relevant answer, it's better to ask "why" five times to dig deeper into the essence of their response. Avoid asking bad questions, such as those about the future, a person's opinion, or questions with predefined answer options.

Examples of bad questions include:

• "Would you order a service to have your place cleaned with environmentally friendly cleaning products?"

This question pertains to the future, and the person will make assumptions, resulting in answers that may not align with their actual behavior. The person may also feel obliged to please you since you asked for their help.

A better alternative:

"What cleaning products do you currently use?"

This question refers to a current time.

Another example of a bad question:

• "How much would you be willing to pay for cleaning with environmentally friendly products?"

This question focuses on the future and assumes that the person has an opinion on the matter, even though they may not have experience with ordering a cleaning service or using environmentally friendly products. It does not gather factual information.

A better question:

• "How much do you spend on cleaning products? Which ones do you use?"

Avoiding Misleading Information:

• Be aware that people may try to please you by providing positive feedback or compliments.
• Avoid discussions about the future, assumptions, and generalizations (e.g., "I would," "I remember").
• Practice active listening and let the interviewee speak more.

Quick Customer Development Hacks:

• Ask open-ended questions that encourage detailed responses.
• Foster an informal conversation to make the interviewee feel more comfortable.
• Conclude the interview by asking if there's anything you didn't cover.
• Request recommendations for other individuals to talk to who may have valuable insights.
• Split the interview into two parts: understanding needs and gathering information, followed by pitching a service or taking action.
• Inquire if the interviewee has previously sought a solution to the problem: yes indicates a need, no suggests no need.

Where to Find People:

Reach out to acquaintances and their networks.

Seek out communities or groups where potential users gather.

Consider organizing meetups or events related to your target audience.

Be imaginative in finding places where your potential users might be.

A recommended book on asking questions to your users is "The Mom Test" by Rob Fitzpatrick.

Another effective way to test the existence or absence of a problem is to create a landing page with a subscription form for early access. Drive relevant advertising traffic to the page and observe the subscription rate. The landing page should be simple, concise, and instantly convey the offering. Research shows that users often leave a website within seconds if it doesn't capture their interest. Therefore, the headline should grab their attention and encourage further exploration.

Even achieving a conversion rate of a few percent is considered positive. With targeted advertising reaching your intended audience, you may expect even higher conversion rates (10 - 30%).

Launch fast

So, we have established that there are no similar solutions available yet, the market is sufficiently large, the problem is genuine, and users are willing to pay for its solution. Now it's time to proceed with the development phase, and the key focus should be on releasing a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) as quickly as possible, ideally within a month. One month is ample time to implement many things, and there's no need to overthink additional features or construct a complex architecture based on high request volumes (since you still need to navigate the initial challenging phase before achieving exponential growth). Instead, identify the core problem-solving feature and concentrate on it. Launch the product and start selling it to users from the waitlist promptly. Afterward, you can gradually introduce supplementary options, enhance the product, and develop the infrastructure. However, during this stage, it is crucial to prioritize a swift MVP release.

The most crucial aspect is to test ideas rapidly and assess their viability at each stage. Determine whether it's worthwhile to continue with the idea or if it's better to set it aside and move on to the next one. This principle applies not only to the overall project development but also to working on individual features. Utilize the momentum to your advantage.

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originally posted on linkedin.com